Autumn Budget 2026 predictions: beyond the headlines

This article draws on previously published commentary from Martin Adams, Partner and Head of Tax, and Tim Lynch, Partner and Head of Private Client.

Ahead of 28 October, the most widely tipped changes are to capital gains tax, inheritance tax and pension reliefs, alongside property reform and frozen thresholds. But the speech is only half the story. The detail published once the Chancellor sits down will decide who pays, how much and from when, and the pressure is likely to fall on the moments when wealth changes hands.

Why the detail will matter more than the speech

A Budget speech sets out the headline measures, and those are what get reported on the day. For most business owners and families, though, the speech is only the starting point.

For anyone with a business, a property portfolio or a sale on the horizon, the useful information arrives later. HM Treasury and HMRC publish their supporting documents shortly after the Chancellor sits down, and those papers set out the start dates, the exceptions and who is actually affected. With so much attention on the speech itself, the small print is easy to miss, and it is often where the real impact sits.

‍Read the speech for the story. Read the documents for the tax bill.

Where the pressure is likely to fall

By keeping the rates of income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT off the table, the Chancellor has ruled out the three taxes that bring in close to 60% of everything the government collects. Whatever extra revenue he needs has to come from smaller sources.

That points to the usual candidates: capital gains tax, inheritance tax and pension reliefs, property, levies on particular sectors, and frozen thresholds that quietly pull more people into higher bands. None of them requires a headline rate rise on the big 3.

The thread running through recent Budgets is a distinction between earning and owning. Trading businesses and people in work have broadly been protected, while capital, wealth and passive returns have carried more of the load. The open question is whether this Budget draws that line more sharply still.

Property tax reform is one area to watch, with council tax representing the most plausible area for change. Council tax in England still rests on property valuations from 1991. Scrapping it altogether looks unlikely for now, but reform remains a realistic prospect. The High Value Council Tax Surcharge, already due from April 2028 on homes in England worth £2 million or more, may also come under consideration.

Why Budget Day itself matters

More and more, the biggest changes, especially to capital gains tax, have applied from the moment they are announced. Each autumn that sends people racing to complete sales before the speech, which is rarely a sound basis for a commercial decision.

Tax should inform a transaction, not drive it. However, where a transaction is going ahead regardless, completing it before 28 October may provide greater certainty from a tax perspective.

Where it lands for families and business owners

Almost every rumour this autumn concerns the point at which an asset passes to someone else, whether through a sale, a gift, a pension or an estate. The questions are often less about the next tax return and more about what will be left for the next generation, and whether the same assets could face more than one tax charge along the way.

Here is how the speculation lines up, and where the answer is likely to sit.

Nor is this confined to large estates. Thresholds that have not moved, property and investment values that have, and pensions joining the estate from April 2027 may bring ordinary family homes and retirement savings within reach of inheritance tax.

What to read once the speech ends

When the documents land, these are the details to check first:

• Start dates. A measure can apply from Budget Day, from 6 April 2027 or later, and the difference can decide whether a planned sale or gift is affected.
• Anti-forestalling rules. These stop people beating a change by acting quickly. When the business and agricultural property relief changes were announced in October 2024, gifts made from Budget Day could still be caught by rules that did not start until April 2026.
• Transitional protections. Whether existing arrangements, contracts already exchanged or pension rights already built up are protected often matters more than the new rate.

Also on our radar

The four moments are not the whole picture. We will also be watching three areas that could affect businesses.

• Payroll and employment costs. Employer National Insurance rose to 15% in April 2025. We will be watching for any further measures that could increase employment costs, particularly for labour-intensive businesses.
• Research and development. R&D tax relief has been through significant reform, with the merged scheme applying to accounting periods beginning on or after 1 April 2024. We will check the Budget documents for any changes to rates, qualifying costs or claim rules.
• International. Speculation continues about a possible charge on unrealised gains for people leaving the UK. There is currently no general exit tax for individuals. We will check whether the Budget includes any changes affecting internationally mobile individuals or businesses operating across borders.

What is worth doing before 28 October

Speculation is a poor reason to do anything you cannot undo. With only weeks to go, anything that depends on a buyer or another third party is realistically off the table unless it is already under way. Moves within a family or a group of companies may still be possible to lock in today’s rates, but only where there is a genuine family or commercial reason behind them.

The more useful work is the unglamorous kind.

• Your will. Is it still right for your wishes and for what you now own?
• Your pension nomination. From April 2027, the person you name may carry inheritance tax consequences it never used to.
• Your business. Know what it is worth today and how much of that value would qualify for relief under the current rules.
• Any sale or major gift. Model it under today’s rules and the likely alternatives, so a decision can be made quickly once the detail is known.

What it could mean for the West Midlands

Greater devolution of funding and decision-making to the regions is expected to feature in the Budget. For businesses in the region, the test is practical: which powers and funding actually move, whether the rules work the same way here as elsewhere, and whether more local control brings investment and certainty rather than another layer of paperwork.

Nobody outside the Treasury knows exactly what will be announced on 28 October. Preparation is the part you can control, and those who have done it will be best placed to respond calmly, whatever the Chancellor decides.

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Martin, Tim and the wider tax team will be reading the detail as it lands on 28 October, with our analysis to follow on the day. If it would help to talk through what the Budget could mean for your business or your family, find out more about how we approach tax.

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Martin and Tim (pictured) also set out their thinking in the October edition of Birmingham Business.

This article has been prepared for information purposes only. Formal professional advice is strongly recommended before making decisions on the topics discussed in this release. No responsibility for any loss to any person acting, or not acting, as a result of this release can be accepted by us, or any person affiliated with us.

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